SPX closed Thursday Aug 28 at 7,711.76 — roughly 3.0% over 20 sessions, ~0.5% over five. No meaningful new high since early August (~7,745). Breadth 75%; VIX 15.2, term structure 0.87. 30-day 1σ ±336 points (±4.4%). XLK +4.1% 20d leads; XLU/XLP lag. September 17–18 FOMC is the dominant catalyst.

Week-ahead outlook — SPX closed Friday at 7,711.76 (+0.77% WTD, second straight winning week) as NVDA's re-acceleration absorbed Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole keynote; a Sunday Hormuz strike revives the geopolitical premium; September hike odds jump to 55.7%.

SPX closed Thursday at 7,730.99 (+0.72%), 68 points below the Aug 13 high of 7,798.99. Breadth printed 100% — historically overextended but unambiguous. VIX 14.48, term ratio 0.825. 30-day 1σ ±320.8 points (4.15%), bracket 7,410–8,052. XLK 5-day +3.01% leads; XLE 5-day -2.29% lags.

SPX closed Tuesday at 7,677.28, holding above the 20-day MA (~7,625); the Aug 13 high of 7,798.99 intact. VIX compressed to 14.94 — bottom quartile of its annual range — with the term ratio at 0.830. 30-day 1σ ±328.7 points (±4.28%). Breadth 75%; XLK +9.77% 20d leads; XLE -1.81% 5d lags.

SPY $765.91 (+3.38% 20d, -0.20% 5d — short-term tape improving). Breadth holds at 75% for a second session, establishing a floor. QQQ recovers to $710.72, 0.34% below its 50-day MA. XLK 5-day recovers −5.40% → −2.09% (largest single-sector reversal); XLE 5-day turns negative −2.54%. VIX 15.71, term ratio 0.863.

SPY $763.47 (+3.30% 20d, -1.19% 5d). Breadth back to 75% — the Jackson Hole bounce fully reversed. QQQ broke below its 50-day MA ($706.32 vs $713.14). VIX 15.86, term ratio 0.855. XLE +8.14% 20d widens lead; XLK -5.40% 5d lags.

SPY $765.72 (+3.63% 20d, -1.37% 5d). Breadth snaps back to 100% after the brief Jackson Hole dip to 75%. VIX 15.91 (term ratio 0.860). Dovish Fed Chair keynote; Sep 17–18 FOMC ~65% cut probability. XLE +6.74% 20d leads; XLU -7.60% 20d lags.

SPY $762.60 (+3.31% 20d, -1.96% 5d — deepest short-term pullback of the advance). Breadth dropped from 100% to 75% in a single session. VIX 15.72 (term ratio 0.825). Fed Chair keynote mid-to-late afternoon ET. XLK -4.02% 5d; XLI -3.24%; XLU -5.24% 20d.

SPY $769.06 (+2.90% 20d, -0.44% 5d). VIX 15.16 — lowest pre-market reading of the week (term ratio 0.738). 100% breadth holds for 2nd day, through profit-taking. XLE +7.40% 20d dual leader; XLV +10.19% 20d. Fed blackout begins; Jackson Hole starts Friday.

SPY $767.45 (+2.56% 20d, -0.40% 5d — mild profit-taking). VIX 15.86 (term ratio 0.823, slight backwardation). 2s10s flat at 0bp. XLE +8.85% 20d leads; XLU -2.00% 20d lags. IV rank SPY 53.7%, QQQ 59.9%.

SPX closed Friday at 7,785.76 — 13 points below the Aug 13 ATH of 7,798.99. SPY $776.34 (+4.45% 20d). VIX opened Tuesday at 15.94 (up from 14.25 Friday); term ratio 0.776. Weekly 1σ ±71 points (7,715–7,857). Jackson Hole begins Thursday.

SPX closed Friday at 7,785.76 — 13 points from its ATH of 7,798.99. SPY $776.34 (+0.40% 5d, +4.45% 20d). VIX opened Monday at 14.97 (term ratio 0.811). Max breadth, compressed vol, quiet calendar. Jackson Hole begins Thursday Aug 20; NVDA reports Aug 26.

SPX 7,798.99, SPY $777.88, QQQ $732.07, IWM $303.50. VIX 14.56 (term ratio 0.708, backwardated). Breadth at 100% into 4th session. XLK +2.94% 5d / +7.46% 20d; XLE +4.99% 5d / +7.22% 20d. Iran-tension oil rally caps multi-sector risk-on.

SPX 7,748.50 (0.58% from ATH), SPY $772.49, QQQ $723.70, IWM $302.71. VIX 14.60 (term ratio 0.696, deeply backwardated). Gold $404.92 (+3.91% 5d); silver $59.06 (+5.75%); WTI $81.68. XLK dual-timeframe leader.

SPY $770.56, QQQ $718.45, IWM $300.99. VIX 15.39 (term ratio 0.749, backwardated). Breadth 100% for 3rd session. XLB leads 5d (+2.38%); XLK worst 5d (-0.43%). July PPI in line: headline +2.2% YoY, core +2.4%.

SPY $773.03, QQQ $720.87, IWM $299.98. VIX 15.52 (term ratio 0.756, backwardated). 100% breadth above 50d MA. XLK +4.65% 5d leads; XLU -2.77% 5d lags. July CPI today (8:30 AM ET): consensus headline +3.1% YoY, core +3.3%.

SPX ~7758, SPY $773.26, QQQ $723.03, IWM $301.56. VIX 15.47 (term ratio 0.753, backwardated). 100% breadth above 50d MA. XLK +7.20% 5d leads; XLE -3.44% 5d lags. July CPI Tue Aug 11: consensus headline +3.1% YoY, core +3.3%.

SPY $768.56, QQQ $714.65, SPX ~7700. VIX 15.29 (term ratio 0.744, backwardated). 100% breadth above 50d MA. XLK +5.46% 5d leads; XLU -2.87% 5d lags. No major events within 5 days.

SPY $769.79, VIX 15.93 (a pullback day producing a VIX decline — the structural signature of a bull regime). Breadth at 100% into a fourth consecutive session. Tech leads decisively (XLK +11.61% 5d); cyclicals broadening into financials and materials.

SPX closed at 7,736.52 on Monday August 4 — a new high relative to the pre-selloff print. Breadth at 100% (every S&P 500 component above its 50-day MA). VIX 16.35, term ratio 0.796 — a bull regime. Consolidation risk rising.

SPX 7489, SPY $747. VIX 15.70 (term ratio 0.764). SPY flat 20d, QQQ correction -3.45%. Breadth held at 50% through Monday's quiet session. Mega-cap earnings absorbed. New week, clean calendar.

SPX 7489, SPY $747, VIX 15.99 (term ratio 0.841). SPY flat 20d, QQQ correction -4.82%. Breadth held at 50% through a hawkish FOMC and near-consensus NFP. Mega-cap earnings clean sweep. Market digesting.

No-trade note for July 31, 2026: Non-Farm Payrolls lands Saturday and a high-impact macro print inside the holding window keeps new short-premium exposure on the sideline.

SPY $741.69, VIX 16.79 (term ratio 0.820, backwardated). Breadth recovered from the post-FOMC low of 25% back to 50%. The dual binary: MSFT/AMZN/META pre-market, NFP Friday 8:30 AM ET.

The hawkish-lean FOMC is being digested: rate held, 2026 median dots shifted up. SPY/QQQ/IWM sold off 1.5–2.0%, VIX up 1.28 points to 19.51, and breadth halved from 50% to 25% in a single session.

FOMC Day 2 is here: rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, presser at 2:30 PM ET. VIX 18.23 (term ratio 0.888, backwardated) as the tech selloff extends into the dot-plot binary.

SPY $739.09, QQQ $682.12, IWM $292.91 with VIX 18.96 (term ratio 0.923, backwardated). Nasdaq -1.16% midday as semis slide before FOMC Day 2 and mega-cap tech earnings.

FOMC decision lands Wednesday Jul 29 at 2:00 PM ET; the desk skips the front-month vol noise and opens an SPX Jan 15, 2027 (172 DTE) 6800/6775 bull put spread ($335 credit, $2,165 max loss, ~82% POP) — selling rich long-end premium that doesn't crush post-event.

SPX closed Thursday at $7,408.30 — between MA50 (~7,440) and MA200 (~6,951): transition regime. VIX 18.8, term ratio 0.917. FOMC July 28, five days out. SPXW Sep 4 long strangle $6,900/$7,950, ~$4,950 debit, max loss defined.

SPX $7,498.96 rebounds +0.6% off Tuesday's dip; VIX 17.76 mid-range; FOMC five days out — the desk's candidate is an SPX Aug 21 AM-settled 7200/7180 bull put spread (~$360 credit, ~$1,640 max loss, ~80% POP), a 20-wide credit spread that gets paid to wait.

SPX closed Tuesday at $7,509.20; VIX 17.36, term ratio 0.844. Bull regime intact (20d +0.5%, breadth 75%, IV-rank 42.5). SPX Aug 21 AM-settled 7235/7225 bull put spread, $240 credit, $760 max loss, ~80% POP, FOMC one week out.

SPX $7,443.28 in a TRANSITION regime — trend lost, breadth narrowed to 50%, tech −8.1% over 20 sessions — the desk's candidate is an SPX Aug 21 AM-settled 7095/7890 long strangle ($4,285 debit, ~32% POP), a vol-expansion play.

SPX $7,457.69 in a BULL regime with a mild 5-day pullback; VIX 18.28; the desk's candidate is an SPX Aug 21 AM-settled 7170/7155 bull put spread (~$300 credit, ~$1,200 max loss, ~80% POP) nine days ahead of the July FOMC.

SPX $7,457.69, VIX 18.77, FOMC nine days out — the desk's candidate is an SPX Aug 21 AM-settled 7135/7125 bull put spread (~$130 credit, ~$870 max loss, ~80% POP) on the defensive bid.

SPX closed Monday at $7,515.34 (−0.79%), VIX 12.84, CPI Wednesday morning — the desk holds flat into the print; the post-CPI candidate is an Aug 21 SPX 7320/7305 bull put spread (~$306 credit, ~80% POP).